Actual Food Prices:
January through May 2022
Copyright © June 1, 2022 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All Rights Reserved.
Introduction
On January 9, 2008 I recorded the prices of 60 long-term food storage items and I calculated their combined impact on the total cost of a one-year emergency food supply for one adult.
I have monitored the prices of those food items at the beginning of January every year since 2008 and I have posted the impact of those prices on the total cost of a one-year food supply on my website. A summary of that information is on my website at the following link: Two Simple Price Inflation Indexes.
In the past I have only monitored the change in food prices once per year. However, this year food prices have increased by a significant amount over the past five months. Therefore I decided to check the current prices of each of those 60 foods and determine their combined impact on the total cost of the one-year food supply. The results are below.
Discussion
My index is very simple. I multiply the cost of each food item by the number of those food items in the one-year food supply. No statistical manipulations are used to adjust the totals in any way for any reason. I believe this is the most logical way to determine how much food prices are actually changing.
First, let me begin with a review of what happened to food prices during the entire year of 2021.
During the entire year of 2021 the 60 different food prices that I monitored changed as follows:
The price of 3 food items decreased.
The price of 31 food items did not change.
The price of 26 food items increased.
The change in the total cost of the one-year emergency food supply for one adult increased by 8.8 percent during the year 2021.
This was the largest one-year increase in food prices since Obama was president in the year 2011 when food prices increased 9.3 percent.
In addition to the above long-term storage foods, the gas and diesel prices also changed during the year 2021:
The price of gasoline increased 54% compared to the year 2020.
The price of diesel increased 36% compared to the year 2020.
On June 1, 2022 I checked the prices of the 60 different foods in the one-year emergency food supply with the following results:
The price of 4 food items decreased.
The price of 14 food items did not change.
The price of 42 food items increased.
The change in the total cost of the one-year emergency food supply for one adult increased by 12.6 percent in five months since January 3, 2022.
The 14 foods that did not change in price, and the 4 foods that decreased in price, helped to keep the increase in the total cost of the one-year emergency food supply at 12.6 percent.
However, it should be noted that the 42 foods that did increase in price had an average price increase of 20.1 percent in five months. This is equal to an annualized price increase of 48.2 percent.
It should also be mentioned that the foods that have not yet increased in price may soon catch up to the 42 foods that have already increased in price.
In addition to the above long-term storage foods, the following prices also changed during the first five months of the year 2022:
The price of fresh milk has increased from $2.30 to $3.72 per gallon and this is a 61.7 percent increase in the price of fresh milk since January 3, 2022.
The price of gasoline has increased from $3.02 to $4.39 per gallon and this is a 45.4 percent increase in the cost of gasoline since January 3, 2022.
The price of diesel has increased from $3.24 to $5.56 per gallon and this is a 71.6 percent increase in the cost of diesel since January 3, 2022.
If the above trends continue for the next seven months until the end of December 2022 then prices may increase as follows:
Fresh milk may be approximately $5.70 per gallon and this will be 148% higher than the price of fresh milk on January 3, 2022.
Gasoline may be approximately $6.31 per gallon and this will be 109% higher than the price of gasoline on January 3, 2022.
Diesel may will be approximately $8.81 per gallon and this will be 172% higher than the price of diesel on January 3, 2022.
The increasing cost of diesel is not just a problem for truck drivers. The increase in the price of diesel is a problem for you and for me because we will be paying for that diesel fuel when we buy the products that are delivered by the trucks. The increase in the price of diesel is one of the reasons that retail prices are increasing so rapidly and it is one of the reasons why retail prices will continue to increase in the future (assuming diesel is still available for sale to truckers and farmers).
The problem is not just food and gas. For example:
- My wife and I have the cheapest mobile phone plan offered by our provider but they increased our monthly rate by 18% in May.
- Our car insurance policy is up for renewal and we have just been notified that our car insurance will increase by 15% in June.
- We have just received our property tax notice and our property tax will increase by 18% this fall.
- Our ceiling fans provided enough comfort until late May and then we turned on our home air conditioning. We only have the temperature set so we can sleep at night without being suffocated by the summer heat. But we know that beginning in June our summer electric bill will be a lot higher.
Mobile phones, car insurance, property tax, and electricity are not optional expenses.
My wife and I live on our monthly social security checks. In May our money ran out and we had to start eating a few of the foods in our emergency food reserve, such as pasta and beans and canned vegetables. We did not expect to be eating our emergency food this early in the year but we were grateful that the food was available. Three of our grandchildren came to visit us over the Memorial Day weekend and they asked "Where are the pretzels?" We told them we don't buy pretzels anymore. We know the hard times are going to get a lot worse as the year progresses and we are trying to eliminate everything that really isn't necessary. We even stopped buying our favorite national brand of toilet tissue and we bought the cheapest generic brand of toilet tissue that was available. That was a mistake. We then bought a different generic brand of toilet tissue that cost just a little more than the first generic brand we tried, and the second generic brand of toilet tissue was acceptable to us.
Our children and their spouses currently have decent jobs but they have to be physically present at work five days per week (no work at home options). Our children have also told us that they have had to stop buying some things because they can't afford them anymore.
Conclusion
There are five basic future scenarios for the above prices:
- Prices could gradually begin to decrease on almost everything.
- Prices could stabilize within plus or minus 5% of their current levels.
- Prices could continue to increase but the increase may not be as much as during the first five months of the year 2022.
- Prices could increase by an additional 100% or 200% or 500% or more between now and the end of December 2022.
- Food, gasoline, and diesel fuel may become unavailable to everyone except for a few very wealthy people and a few very carefully selected people in government, business, and finance.
If scenario 4 or 5 above should occur, then widespread rioting, looting, rape, and murder will probably result in the meltdown of all forms of law enforcement everywhere.
I do not know what will happen to prices or to the availability of food, gasoline, and diesel. But I think it would be prudent to have a contingency plan for all the above scenarios.
Although murdering other people and stealing whatever they have will probably be the contingency plan of lots and lots of people, this should not be one of your options.
If you desire for your family to survive then sometime in the not too distant future you may have to make the decision on whether or not you will use deadly force to protect your family if your family is attacked. "Turning the other cheek" applies to someone who is insulting you and "turning the other cheek" does not apply to someone who is trying to kill you or your family.
May God Bless,
Grandpappy.
Grandpappy's e-mail address is: RobertWayneAtkins@hotmail.com